Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 2.278393 3.048177 4.103506 5.695012 8.105324e+00 1.174274e+01 1.790335e+01
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 1.609480 2.481644 3.919372 6.616575 1.194911e+01 2.305543e+01 5.151026e+01
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 1.149271 1.983545 3.584334 7.227262 1.653991e+01 4.397240e+01 1.624191e+02
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 0.927836 1.786562 3.705920 9.083089 2.769425e+01 1.150994e+02 1.030267e+03
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 0.748880 1.587001 3.738280 11.114632 4.649256e+01 3.480175e+02 1.750853e+04
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 0.619832 1.434511 3.819614 13.865968 8.375642e+01 1.484195e+03 8.283884e+07
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 0.513450 1.283674 3.823612 16.880360 1.534966e+02 1.019462e+04 NaN
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 0.398955 1.050225 3.380593 17.225319 2.194737e+02 7.404509e+04 NaN
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.308359 0.843790 2.883209 16.484826 2.831762e+02 1.020150e+06 NaN
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.256888 0.737038 2.714008 18.041724 4.791787e+02 NaN NaN
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.228394 0.693624 2.801599 22.681696 1.173686e+03 NaN NaN
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.211262 0.682847 3.063109 31.511416 4.522467e+03 NaN NaN
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.185824 0.632078 3.098812 39.635672 1.977613e+04 NaN NaN
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.154345 0.539909 2.782378 40.486855 5.365815e+04 NaN NaN
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.127365 0.454464 2.427645 38.883057 1.287272e+05 NaN NaN
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.113120 0.419281 2.402156 46.779992 2.707484e+06 NaN NaN
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.100444 0.384967 2.348948 55.091074 2.387840e+10 NaN NaN
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.090598 0.359449 2.344121 67.681713 NaN NaN NaN
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.081667 0.334040 2.312704 81.401782 NaN NaN NaN
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.070328 0.290586 2.052752 77.429742 NaN NaN NaN
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.060086 0.249094 1.771377 68.381034 NaN NaN NaN
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.053902 0.227415 1.675370 73.334449 NaN NaN NaN
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 0.050528 0.219883 1.725718 95.708829 NaN NaN NaN